Will Covid-19 be more deadly than the flu?
Public Health England told ITV News: The number of flu cases and deaths due to flu-related complications varies each flu season. The average number of deaths in England for the last five seasons, 2014/15 to 2018/19, was 17,000 deaths annually.
England Flu Death
Annual Flu (average) : 17,000
2018-19 : 1,692 (flu jabs available)
2014-15 : 28,330
Of these 28,330 deaths, 25,143 were aged over 65, nearly 90%.
On a historic and global scale
Worldwide Flu Death
Annual Flu (average) : 0.5 million
1918 Flu Pandemic : 20-100 million
1957 Asian Flu : 1-4 million
1968 Hong Kong Flu : 1-4 million
Never before has the world taken the drastic action of a global lockdown when confronted with a contagious virus. We are yet to see whether this will be effective.
Despite their high number, deaths from flu are not normally headline news, so what has changed?
Conclusions
- We do not yet know if coronavirus is more dangerous than the flu
- Most political decisions have been taken without sufficient testing
- It is impossible to know you have coronavirus without a test
- Many people with coronavirus have no symptoms (asymptomatic)
- We do not know how many people have coronavirus
- This is a global pandemic
- National borders are meaningless
- We can all act together when necessary
- The surveillance state is growing more powerful
- Our liberty will be curtailed for the foreseeable future
- The economic rules we live by will have to be revised
- Petty differences evaporate when faced with universal calamity
- This is a chance to build a more caring and unified world
Or perhaps we all now live in a Twitter Panic World…
References
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-02-06/how-does-the-wuhan-coronavirus-compare-to-seasonal-flu/
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/seasonal-influenza-guidance-data-and-analysis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/23/have-i-already-had-covid19-coronavirus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-map-how-covid-19-cases-are-spreading-across-the-world
‡
26th May Update – Timeline
• 1st December 2019
First symptoms in Wuhan, China says The Lancet
• 22 January
WHO confirm human to human transmission
Wuhan enters lockdown for 76 days
• 22 February
First European death in Veneto, Italy
• 3rd March
Boris says Wash your Hands
• 11th March
WHO declares worldwide pandemic
Tory Health Minister Nadine Dorries tests positive
• 12th March
Boris says We are not – repeat not – closing schools now
Government does not go into Lockdown
• 23rd March
Boris says Stay at Home
• 6th April
Boris admitted to intensive care with Covid-19
• 10th May
Boris says Stay Alert
• 26th May
Metro newspaper says Stay Elite
30th July Update
We are living in a panic world – For the last 5 weeks fewer people have died in England and Wales than in an average year says the Office for National Statistics. For example, that is 270 fewer deaths for the week ending 17 July 2020. This has not been headline news.
Roughly 620,000 people die every year in the UK. 2020 is lining up to be about eighth in the list for deaths since 1993, so it’s not particularly unusual in terms of the number of people who’ve died. Undoubtedly Covid has killed way too many people, but in normal times they would have been deaths from other causes. Let’s keep this in proportion…
References
Office for National Statistics