Firstly let’s be sure what a no-deal Brexit means. Apart from the disastrous economic consequences it means the dissolution of the United Kingdom. We will break the Good Friday agreement in Ireland, and Scotland will justifiably vote for independence. Neither Scotland or Northern Ireland voted for Brexit and they will not accept it. The negotiated Brexit deal on offer from Theresa May leaves us in a worse position than our current membership, with no voice in Europe. We can see both Ireland and France from our own shores, yet now we are setting up trade barriers with them. Let us not forget that nearly half of our trade is with the EU. I have lived through a time when I could travel to the end of a continent through many, many countries, with no encumbrance. There has been the longest peacetime ever recorded in Western Europe, for which the EU received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012. Historically that is glorious and unprecedented, and now we are about to throw it away. I personally regard this as a betrayal of all that my parents and grandparents fought for in the 20th Century, through two World Wars. Not surprisingly there is no support for Brexit in parliament, and ministers are leaving the government in droves as a result. Indeed, as Joe Johnson phrased it in his resignation speech, the present choice is “vassalage or chaos”. There will either be a general election or another referendum.
Meanwhile we have wasted two years of our political life squabbling, and the fifth (or ninth) largest economy in the world has made itself into a laughing stock. I said the day after the 2016 referendum that this is basically about the Tories fighting amongst themselves, they have torn their own party apart as they scrabble for power, and damn the consequences. Let us not forget it was the Tories who invented the referendum, believing it would solve their own internal problems. As of 16 November 2018 there are eighteen senior Conservatives who have resigned over Brexit in less than six months, including two Secretaries of State for Exiting the European Union. How can you run a government, never mind a country, in these circumstances? Our chief Brexit negotiator, Mr Rabb, has resigned since he cannot support the deal that he himself negotiated. A pretty pass, which I am sure will be paid for at the ballot box.
The 2016 referendum itself was a farce. It was essentially a protest vote, which was quite understandable in the circumstances. Yes, 37% of UK citizens voted against austerity, immigration and David Cameron, and for Brexit. The level of debate within the Remain campaign during the referendum was of a pathetic and hubristic nature, they thought they couldn’t lose. The ignominy of David Cameron wandering around Europe, looking for a better deal, followed by the betrayal of his self-serving lieutenant, Boris Johnson, were enough to swing the vote for Leave. The Electoral Reform Society described the campaign as “dire” with “glaring democratic deficiencies” which left voters bewildered. Let’s not forget, you could only vote for Tories!
A few days after the referendum I was in a minicab with an Irish driver. As we chatted, I asked about the vote in Northern Ireland and the potential problems with the Irish border. He sounded like a Brexiteer (naturally, as Brits, we didn’t actually say how voted), but he had no idea that the vote would have any effect on the border situation. I didn’t regard this as a reflection on my driver, but as a comment on the wholesale failure by the Remain campaign to raise the relevant issues. We now know how large their failure was, since this has proved to be an insoluble problem, yet at the time hardly anyone appeared to know about it. The pro leave Democratic Unionist Party of Ulster (who have kept Theresa May in power) didn’t appear to appear to realise a hard border would be created by Brexit. Now they have been hoist by their own petard.
My other major issue with the campaign and the media is a severe case of amnesia, if not dereliction of duty. We had already voted to stay in the European Community in 1975 by a huge majority. This verdict was given by a vote with a bigger majority than has been received by any Government in any general election, more than 2 to 1. Today all the politicians say they are fearful of a second referendum, no no no it will be the third referendum! We were asked in June 1975 “Do you think the United Kingdom should stay in the European Community (the Common Market)?”. There was a resounding Yes! Yet it’s like this event happened in some alternate universe – no-one ever mentions it, but the fact is the current score is one all. Maybe it’s time for a decider.
Since 1973 we have been European, you can’t turn back time. In the long run the past never defeats the future. We came from Europe and shall forever be part of it.
Postscript 13 January 2019
It may turn out that Brexit was a chimera, that is according to the OED a “A thing which is hoped for but is illusory or impossible to achieve”. The Tories held an advisory referendum on a supposition they could not deliver. The Good Friday Agreement prevents a hard border in Ireland and so precludes the possibility of Brexit. If only our politicians had been wise enough to know that. After 2 years the Tories have failed to square that circle, and I imagine no-one ever will. Still if parliament unexpectedly agrees to Theresa May’s deal, we can look forward to another two years of bloody negotiation on the final trade arrangements. She has only agreed the framework withdrawal agreement at present, the rights of businesses and citizens remain largely untouched between Brexit day on March 29 2019 and 1 July 2020, which may be extended to January 2021. That is the transition period. Yes, Brexit aka “To hell with the rest of the world” has paralysed British politics. It is destroying British industry, investment and our place in the world, and will continue to do so. That’s some legacy for our children and the 1.3 million British Citizens living in the EU.
16 January 2019
Quotes from European newspapers after the the greater ever government defeat
“Shipwrecked by Brexit”
“It’s great theatre – but tragic.”
“A politically hopelessly divided and lame Britain”
“No country has landed itself in such complete and utter chaos”
“It’s the sort of mess Greece would get itself into.”
Quotes from The Guardian
And hopefully in conclusion:
Brexit is an advisory illegal chimera constructed by the Conservative Party to solve their own problems. They have failed.
We voted 2-1 to stay in the European Community in 1975 and it’s 44 Years too late to undo all that. We are Europeans.
6 February 2019
A special place in hell? The Brexit promoters most likely to burn.
3 September 2019
Tory Party becomes the Brexit Party, as Boris sacks all the Tories who will not back a no-deal Brexit. Tory Party now attempting to run the country without a majority and with an unelected leader. No-one ever voted for any of this.
9 September 2019
Leo Varadkar, Irish Prime Minister says:
“The story of Brexit will not end if the United Kingdom leaves on 31 October or even 31 January – there is no such thing as a clean break. No such thing as just getting it done. Rather, we just enter a new phase.
If there is no deal, I believe that’s possible, it will cause severe disruption for British and Irish people alike. We will have to get back to the negotiating table. When we do, the first and only items on the agenda will be citizens’ rights, the financial settlement and the Irish border. All the issues we had resolved in the withdrawal agreement we made with your predecessor. An agreement made in good faith by 28 governments.”
†
Update 1 June 2023
Unfortunately Brexit did get done, thanks Boris. It is finally officially a Disaster:
It’s been a complete disaster. The reality is it’s been a lose-lose situation for us and Europe. …. And the reality of Brexit was, it was just was a bunch of complete and total lies.
– Guy Hands, City figure and Tory donor, 31 Jan 2023 Radio 4 Today
Brexit has been a fucking absolute unmitigated disaster.
– Noel Gallagher, Big Issue 12 May 2023
Brexit has failed.
– Nigel Farage, Newsnight 15 May
Immigration has gone up, not down, since we left the EU.
The Guardian, 19 May
British households have paid £7bn since Brexit to cover the extra cost of trade barriers on food imports from the EU.
– London School of Economics (LSE), 24 May The Guardian
56% people in the UK would vote to rejoin the EU.
John Curtice, Poll of polls May 2023
Historic economic error.
– Larry Summers, former US treasury secretary, 1 June The Guardian
